Former Guinean Prime Minister Lansana Kouyaté recently shared his analysis on the current crisis in Niger. He highlighted the complexity of the situation and shed light on some key factors that led to the current instability.
Kouyaté’s analysis underscores the complexity of the crisis in Niger. He emphasized the importance of a peaceful transition of power and warned against the premature use of force to resolve internal conflicts. As Niger continues to navigate through this period of instability, it is essential for regional and international leaders to consider these factors to help restore peace and stability in the country.
A challenging transition of power
According to Kouyaté, the transition of power in Niger was far from smooth. He pointed out that “leaving power without truly leaving it can create more serious problems than believed.” He referred to the presidential guard, which was involved in the coup, noting that it was actually the guard of the outgoing president. The current president, who is from the same party as the outgoing president, continued to see the presidential guard as an extension of his power.
Kouyaté also highlighted internal tensions within the presidential guard. He mentioned repeated incidents between the presidential guard and President Bazoum. These tensions ultimately led to an attempt to overthrow the president. “But why did the army quickly join the coup? Analyzing this, we can still see the depths of this crisis,” Kouyaté indicated.
CEDEAO’s intervention
The former Guinean president criticized the intervention of the ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States), stating that it did not employ the right methods to manage the crisis. According to him, ECOWAS should have first resorted to diplomacy and embargoes before using force. He also criticized ECOWAS’s decision to send military forces to Niger, stating that it exacerbated the situation.
As a reminder, on July 19, 2023, Niger was shaken by a military coup that saw the elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, detained by the military. The head of the Nigerien presidential guard, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, declared himself the head of state after the military took power.
Despite a relatively long period of democratic rule since independence, Niger has always been threatened by coup attempts. Indeed, during Bazoum’s election to the presidency in 2021, a coup attempt occurred about 48 hours before his inauguration. The attempt failed, but it revealed deep fissures in the country and suggested that the army had not fully embraced democracy.
Factors behind the coup
Several factors contributed to this coup. Firstly, the debate over ethnicity and the legitimacy of Bazoum was an issue during the last election campaign. Bazoum is from Niger’s Arab minority and has always been seen as having foreign origins. This was not well-received within the military circle, which is primarily composed of the major ethnic groups.
Secondly, the significant presence of foreign troops and military bases in the country was not well-received by the army. They believe it undermines them. Niger is a key ally of Western countries, particularly France, the United States, and the European Union, in the fight against insurgency and illegal immigration to Europe. Efforts to address these issues will be affected. Additionally, the new military leaders in Niger may want to use these issues as leverage in negotiations and to force acceptance of the new regime.
Consequences of the coup
This coup will have a significant impact on peace and stability in Niger and the entire Sahel region. Niger is a strong ally of Western nations, especially France, the United States, and the European Union, in the fight against insurgency and illegal immigration to Europe. Efforts to address these issues will be affected. Additionally, the new military leaders in Niger may want to use these issues as leverage in negotiations and to force acceptance of the new regime.
