Between the “Children of Talonism” and the “Heirs of Yayism,” there is indeed Professor Joël Aïvo. A three-way battle is unfolding before our eyes since the emergence of this academic in Benin’s political arena. Here, in order, are all the facts that support this political reality.
A few weeks ago, the newspaper “Olofofo” conducted a report on “the new faces of Beninese politics.” Less than three years before the presumed end of President Talon’s mandate, it is indeed commendable for the media to seek to enlighten their readers about the active political forces. It is true that everything has changed on the Beninese political chessboard since Patrice Talon came to power. Political parties, key actors, and positions of influence have shifted, disappeared, or been repositioned. From top to bottom, everything has changed, and it is the merit of a newspaper to provide a thorough analysis of the active forces shaping politics in Benin, which will undoubtedly determine the outcome of future elections and, above all, the fate of the Beninese people.
The new faces proposed by our colleagues are debatable. In reality, for any attentive observer of the current political life in Benin, three main political forces are vying for supreme power. On one side, Patrice Talon; on the other, Boni Yayi, and in the middle of the two, Joël Aïvo. There are no others of this magnitude, no other figure who is not already aligned with either Talon or Yayi Boni. There are none, except perhaps Sébastien Ajavon, but he has abandoned the fight and led his party, the USL, to ruin since he was forced into exile.
However, against all odds and despite the risks, a political dynamic led by Professor Joël Aïvo emerged during the 2021 presidential election, precisely at a time when opposing President Patrice Talon seemed almost suicidal. The constitutionalist’s following, which was shaken by his arrest, faces the wrath of the Rupture regime but still stands its ground. In just a few years, this opposition dynamic, independent of the two heads of state, has found its place on the political stage.
Since President Talon completed his political reforms in 2019, there are now only three boxers left in the ring: Patrice Talon himself, his main “intimate enemy” Boni Yayi, and Joël Aïvo. Each with their own entourage, fighters, and supporters. The first two can no longer officially claim to lead the country but content themselves with facing off through parties and proxies. The third, the youngest of this trio, has not held the presidential office like Yayi and Talon, nor does Joël Aïvo possess the means and networks that are the strength of his two elders. Nevertheless, he is currently the only independent political leader apart from the two heads of state, charting his own path.
Unlike all the political leaders of his generation, the professor of constitutional law seeks to build his own path to power through his own ideas and his own project. This is why it would be difficult to deny that, apart from Yayi and his heirs, apart from Talon and his lieutenants, the only immediate political alternative for the country is championed by the generation around Professor Aïvo. The question is not whether he has the same means as the two heads of state. What matters here is to acknowledge that the man of the “itinerant dialogue” has, through his audacity, managed to distance himself from the Talon-Yayi confrontation and propose a different political project, one distinct from the electoral confrontation between Talon and Yayi.
Talon’s grip on power is undeniable. It is a fact that Patrice Talon is present on the political stage. This is inevitable when one has led a country for ten years and left a legacy, regardless of its nature. After ten years of a controversial rule, Patrice Talon has successfully completely reshaped the political landscape inherited from the 20 years of Kérékou-Yayi’s rule. Traditional parties and their leaders have disappeared or been repositioned. Patrice Talon is now the sole leader of the presidential majority. During his tenure, President Talon accomplished what Nicéphore Soglo, Boni Yayi, and Mathieu Kérékou refused to do: neutralize the brokers of support and reduce all the corrupt subcontractors to nothing.
Now, he is the boss. Gone are the days when politicians went fishing for support in the name of the President of the Republic and returned to sell it at a high price.
Furthermore, Patrice Talon dismantled all these parties of bartering and blackmail. The PSD is finished, MADEP is done, Union fait la Nation, PRD, and the host of micro-parties that thrived on bargaining, corruption, and patronage are gone. To crown his revolution, Patrice Talon has sent into obscurity all those politicians who were entrenched like baobabs on the political scene since 1990. Even the younger leaders, pompously called young Turks, kingmakers, etc., are buried without ceremony.
This is how Patrice Talon made his “new beginning” and established himself as the sole captain of his team. All the others are now behind him, not beside him but behind him. That is why many among the current political leaders must be considered as proteges of Patrice Talon. At best, it could be said that they are “supporters” of the Talon system. For many of them, they have no personal equation or significant political base. Patrice Talon is their leader. This is the case, despite their seniority, of Adrien Houngbédji, Bruno Amoussou, Idji Kolawolé, Mathurin Nago, Lazare Sèhouéto, Abdoulaye Bio Tchané, Abraham Zinzindohoué, François Abiola, Valentin Houdé, who all obediently joined Patrice Talon. This is even more true for the younger generation like Romuald Wadagni, Orden Alladatin, Samou Adambi, Olivier Boko, Charles Toko, Malick Gomina, Johannes Dagnon, Joseph Djogbénou, Jacques Ayadji, Gérard Gbénonchi, Jean-Michel Abimbola, or Augustin Ahouanvoébla. None of them can aspire to a national destiny without being carried by Patrice Talon. In fact, what would they be worth today in a true national election without the “protection” of Patrice Talon? Not much!
If we agree that President Talon has succeeded in placing all the political figures who support his actions within UP-R and BR, then it is easier to understand that within President Talon’s camp, he is the boss. If we also consider that there is no nationally credible personality today, capable of existing independently of Talon’s resources, then we understand that the leader is indeed Patrice Talon. If we consider that none of the young wolves defending Patrice Talon in the Assembly and in the media is capable of running for president on their own shoulders, then Olivier Boko, Romuald Wadagni, Johannes Dagnon, Joseph Djogbénou, Abdoulaye Bio
